Commercial loans coming due, county by county, every month

How the index is counted

The definition is fixed, so that a change between two readings is a change in the market or in the record, not in the method. Where the method does change, the edition that follows says so and restates the months affected.

• Source of record. Every loan is a mortgage, consolidation agreement or deed of trust recorded with the county (ACRIS in New York City; the county clerk in Texas), matched to its parcel on the assessor's roll. Trade press, loan sales and servicer reports are not sources.
• What counts as a loan. Active liens of $1 million and up on commercial collateral. A loan on a single house is out; a blanket over three or more houses is a portfolio and counts once, however many parcels secure it. A recorded satisfaction, release, consolidation or foreclosure removes the loan the week it is recorded.
• Stated means written down. The headline counts only maturities read from the scanned instrument or taken from the loan's securitization disclosure. Where the document states no date, a modelled date is shown beside it as context and is never a fact, never past due, never in the dollars.
• Past maturity means open on the record. A stated maturity between one and twenty-four months before the reading date, and no satisfaction or release on file. Some of these loans were extended by an agreement that was never recorded; some were paid off and the release never filed. The record says the lien is open until a release is recorded, and so does the index.
• One reading a month. The counters are recomputed every day; the last computation of each calendar month is kept as that month's reading. Windows run from the reading date.
• Which counties. Every county with a Circlemark market page. A county joins the index with its first kept month and is never backfilled; the total row changes when a county is added, and the edition says so.

What the index cannot tell you: who holds a loan today (the originator is what the record names), whether an open loan past its date is in trouble or merely unreleased, and anything about loans whose maturity is written nowhere — in New York City that is most of them, because a consolidation agreement rarely restates the date. The full method, provenance tiers and known gaps are on the methodology page; the changes that moved a count are dated on the data notes.

Citing the index. “Circlemark Maturity Index, October 2026 reading, circlemark.ai/maturity-index.” Figures may be reproduced with that attribution; the county pages carry the detail behind each row.