Circlemark Maturity Index, October 2026: 2,708 commercial loans and $33.1B come due in the next twelve months, by the date written on the instrument

2,708 active commercial mortgages in New York City and seven Texas counties carry a maturity written on the recorded instrument that falls in the next twelve months: $33.1 billion of original principal. Another 4,131 passed their written date in the last two years with no payoff recorded. This is the first reading of the Circlemark Maturity Index, taken October 31, 2026. From December, each reading reports the change.

The Circlemark Maturity Index is the county pages' counters, kept. The dated briefs on this site (New York's wall by borough, Dallas–Fort Worth's by county) each counted one market on one day; the index counts every market the same way every month. Since October 8 the pages for Manhattan, Dallas County and nine other counties have been recomputed every morning from the record and have said "as of today". They could never say "up from last month", because yesterday's figure was overwritten. Now the last computation of each calendar month is kept as that month's reading, and the readings are published here, one edition a month, on the first business day of the month after.

The definition does not move. Every loan is a mortgage, consolidation agreement or deed of trust of $1 million or more on commercial collateral, recorded with the county and still open on the record; one loan counts once, however many parcels secure it. A maturity counts only when it is written on the instrument or in the loan's securitization disclosure. Where the document states no date, our model's date is shown beside the count as context and is never a fact, never past due, never in the dollars. The window runs twelve months from the reading date. The index page carries the full definition and the table that updates with each reading.

The October 2026 reading

Active commercial loans of $1M or more on the county record as of October 31, 2026. "Stated maturity" is the count of loans whose maturity is written on the recorded instrument or in its securitization disclosure and falls between October 31, 2026 and October 31, 2027; "of" adds the loans our model places in the window from the origination date and the lender's usual term. Principal is the stated loans' original principal under the headline guards (a corporate credit facility secured by a building is counted once and never summed; implausible amounts against the assessed value are excluded). Past maturity: a stated date between October 2024 and September 2026 and no satisfaction or release on file, with the original principal in brackets. Distress: a recorded distress filing or a foreclosure on an active lien.

Two states, two kinds of record

The column that matters most is the one that looks like a flaw. In the four New York boroughs, 258 of the 6,829 loans our model places in the next twelve months, 4%, have a maturity date anyone can read on a recorded document. In the seven Texas counties it is 2,450 of 6,760, 36%.

That is not a difference in the markets. It is a difference in what gets written down. A New York lender records a mortgage, and a plain mortgage usually states its maturity; then the loan is refinanced under a consolidation, extension and modification agreement, and the agreement usually does not restate the date. Most of Manhattan's larger loans end up under an agreement. ACRIS indexes the instrument and never the maturity, so the date exists only where a lender chose to write it on the page. A Texas deed of trust, by contrast, states the note's maturity on its first page more often than not; it is a shorter document for a shorter loan, and the clerk's index is no help either way.

So the two halves of the table should be read differently. The Texas figures are close to a census of the loans coming due. The New York figures are a floor: 141 Manhattan loans with a written date in the window, $5.94 billion, and 1,712 more that our model places there and the record does not confirm. The dollars tell the same story from the other side. Manhattan's 141 stated loans carry nearly as much principal as Dallas County's 573, because the loans that do state a date in Manhattan are the large, securitized ones whose disclosure we can read, and a handful of 2017 office loans are a large share of them. By count, the wall is in Texas; by dollars per loan, in Manhattan.

The next two years, by window

Stated maturities only, all eleven counties.

The near half of the window is as full as the far half: 1,333 loans with a written date come due by the end of April 2027, 1,375 in the six months after. The second year is larger than the first, 2,056 loans and $34.2 billion, and that is the part of the table that the next twelve readings will watch move into the window. In Texas the near window is heaviest in Dallas County (265 loans, $2.20 billion) and Harris County (242 loans, $2.32 billion); in New York, Manhattan's 51 near-window loans carry $2.11 billion.

Open past maturity

4,131 loans across the eleven counties have a maturity written on the instrument that passed between one and twenty-four months before the reading date, and no satisfaction, release or consolidation on file. Their original principal was $52.4 billion. Dallas County has the most of them (871), then Travis (777) and Harris (698); in New York City it is 275 loans, 125 of them in Manhattan.

This is the column to read most carefully, because it is the one the record is least able to explain (what the county record shows about a loan past its date is a guide of its own). A loan can be open on the record for three different reasons. It was extended by an agreement the lender never recorded, which in Texas is common for construction and bridge paper with a short written term. It was paid off and the release was never filed, or was filed under a reference the index cannot join. Or it is a workout. The record cannot tell those apart, and the index does not try: it says the lien is open on the record, and nothing more. Texas clerks record modifications and extensions as instruments of their own; where we have read one, the loan carries the extended date and leaves this column. Where the extension was never recorded, or we have not yet read it, the loan stays.

One consequence is visible in the table. The Texas past-maturity principal, $48.1 billion over a 24-month lookback, is larger than the Texas principal coming due in the next twelve, $26.1 billion. A 24-month window is twice as wide, unreleased paper accumulates in it, and a short-term loan whose written date has passed but whose borrower is still paying under an unrecorded extension is exactly the loan a broker wants to hear about. That is what the column is for.

Distress on file

199 of the active loans in the table carry a distress filing on the record (a lis pendens in New York, a notice of trustee's sale or substitute trustee's deed in Texas) or a foreclosure. 137 of them are in New York City, 61 in Manhattan and 47 in Brooklyn, against 62 across the seven Texas counties. Texas forecloses faster and outside the courts, so a distressed Texas loan is on the record for a shorter time before it is gone; the New York count is the slower, visible kind.

What this reading cannot tell you

The limits first, because a first reading has more of them than any later one.

It is a baseline. There is no prior month, so nothing here is a change; the December edition is the first that can say what moved. A count can move for three reasons: the market (loans come due, get paid off, get recorded), the record (a clerk's backlog, a release filed late), and our reading of it (an instrument read for the first time, a modification joined to its loan). The index is counted the same way every month so that the first two are what is left, and each edition names the third where it happened.

It counts what is written. A New York loan whose maturity appears on no recorded page is not in the stated count, whatever our model thinks; the reader who wants the model's figure has it in the "of" column and on each county page, marked as an estimate.

It names the originator, not the holder. A loan sold after recording still reads under the lender that wrote it.

It covers eleven counties: the four ACRIS boroughs and the seven Texas counties with a Circlemark market page. A county joins the index with its first kept month and is not backfilled, so the total row changes when one is added, and the edition that adds it says so. Hudson County, New Jersey, enabled in search in late October, joins when its page is published.

What the December edition adds

The November reading is taken on November 30 and published on the first business day of December. Against October it will show, for each county, the change in the stated count, in the principal, and in the number of loans open past their date; the loans that entered the window from the 12-to-24-month column, and the loans that left it, paid off or past. The method on the index page is the one that will be applied; where it has to change, the edition will say so and restate the months affected.

Every loan in the table is a row in Circlemark, with the maturity cited to its page on the instrument and the owner behind the LLC. The county pages carry the windows, the collateral mix and the lenders behind each row.